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Egypt is back in the new version of the Great Game; in this
century the race is not after the vast territories of Central Asia, but after
the rich gas fields discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean. On Sunday, June 24,
2012, Mohamed Morsi was declared Egypt’s first Islamist president in the freest
elections in the country’s history. Morsi won with 51.7% of last weekend’s
run-off vote versus 48.3 for Shafiq; the latter was the last Prime Minister of
President’s Mubarak corrupt regime. A new Egypt has been born and is ready to
return to its central role in the Arab and Muslim worlds… just a sec, not so
fast. |
President-elect Mohammed Morsi
Voting, June 16, 2012
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Not so fast…
Gaza Celebrates Morsi's Victory
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Morsi is the first civilian president in the history of
modern Egypt. The other four presidents all came from the military ranks.
Moreover, he is the first president openly identified with the Muslim
Brotherhood, an organization that was defined illegal by the military-run
regime. When it became clear that the army-backed candidate had little chance of
winning (see Rigged Democracy: Egypt as Israel), the Supreme Council of the
Armed Forces (SCAF) running the country since Mubarak was deposed,
illegitimately changed the rules of the game. President Mursi will have much
less power than his predecessor Mubarak; the real power will remain in the hands
of the military. The SCAF granted itself legislative powers, and reinforced its
role in the drafting of a permanent constitution. Moreover, Field Marshal
Tantawi announced the re-establishment of a National Defense Council, leaving
the generals in charge of Egypt’s national security policy even after their last
president was jailed for life. |
Yet, reality is clear. Egypt finally recognized its Muslim
heart and the army won’t be able to change that, mainly because most of its
soldiers are Muslim. The generation of Field Marshal Tantawi and its
America-funded generals will be replaced by a new generation that didn’t know
the sweetness of corruption. Hours before his victory was announced, Mursi gave
an interview to Iran’s Fars news agency. He declared that he will aim at
bettering the relations between the countries, which had not been allies in the
last century, in order to “create a balance of pressure in the region.” Shortly
afterwards, Iran praised the election of Morsi, as a “splendid vision of
democracy” that marked an “Islamic Awakening.” Sunni Egypt and Shi’ite Iran are
among the biggest and most influential countries in the Middle East. They
haven’t had diplomatic relations since 1980, following Iran’s Islamic Revolution
and Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. Yet, the current warming up between the
countries is not a mere consequence of Islamic revival in Egypt. The reference
of Mursi to the “balance of power” was a clear reference to the New Great Game.
Until now, Egypt was out of it.
Eastern Mediterranean | New Gas
Fields
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An Alliance is Born
At the bottom of this page is a box linking relevant
articles on the recently discovered gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean; in
this article I’ll just make a short summary of the issue and link it to the new
Egyptian reality. The fields have been discovered since 2009, with new ones
being discovered every few months. Some of them are in disputed areas between
Israel and Lebanon; others in areas controlled by Cyprus. Studies show that the
area between Northern Cyprus and Turkey may also be rich in gas. Because the
distances among the countries are less than 400 nautical miles, it is up to the
states to delineate the actual boundaries. Israel and Lebanon are not at peace
with each other, and Israel and Turkey have lowered their relations to the
minimum possible following the Freedom
Flotilla affair. Thus, a peaceful solution is not the most likely
outcome.
Following the gas discovery, Israel was quick to create a
close military alliance with Cyprus. This has encroached on most of the fields
between the two countries. Greece was brought into this alliance—providing
peripheral support—in a military exercise conducted together with the USA.
Israel also strengthened its relations with NATO, to the extent that it got
access to NATO’s communications codes ( NATO-Israel
Joint Drill: Access Codes); thus, despite Turkey being formally part of
NATO, it is hard to believe NATO will attack Israel if the conflict escalates.
Finally, in the far periphery of the area, Israel has an energy-based alliance
with Azerbaijan. |
Oil Fields close-up
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Lebanon was the first country of the opposite alliance to
clearly state its intentions regarding the gas fields. Turkey subsequently
declared its support, and said that it would protect the Northern Cyprus fields
as they are discovered. This almost surrounds the inner ring of Israel-Cyprus,
leaving only its southern flank exposed. Shortly afterwards, Iran announced its
active support of Lebanon in its claims. Syria was left outside due to the
civilian unrest still dominating reality there. In 2009, Egypt was a close ally
of Israel and thus did not get involved in the issue. After Mubarak’s fall, the
political instability caused the gas fields to be neglected by the ruling
Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Now things have changed. Egypt is in
position to claim sovereignty over many of the discovered fields; new ones may
be discovered between Egypt and Cyprus, as the map above shows. Mursi’s
statement regarding the warming up between Egypt and Iran signal which alliance
Egypt wants to join. It makes sense from the military angle; with Egypt joining
Lebanon and Turkey, an outer naval ring surrounding the Israel-Cyprus one, a new
“balance of pressure”—as it was defined by Mursi—will be created. Though
cautious, the fine-print in Mursi’s statement is crystal clear. Israel’s claims
of ownership will soon be contested at higher levels; an energy-war may erupt in
the near future.
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