Amenaza global: un análisis comparativo de Al-Qaeda y el Estado Islámico (IS
Amenaza global: un análisis comparativo de Al-Qaeda y el Estado Islámico (IS
Global Threat: A Comparative Analysis of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS)
1
Global Threat: A Comparative Analysis of Al-Qaedaand the Islamic State (IS)
Muhammad Munir
*
and Muhammad Shafiq
**
Abstract
The transformation of terrorism from Al-Qaeda to theIslamic State (IS) has created new security challenges.This article examines the threats posed by these twogroups by discussing their ideologies, structures andcapabilities
.
Unlike local terrorist groups like the AfghanTaliban, the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda pose a globalthreat. While assessing the prospects of the IS inAfghanistan, the article also briefly looks at the AfghanTaliban.
The IS which was initially fighting the „nearenemy‟
- the Iraqi and Syrian regimes, has now changed itsstrategy by equally focusing on the
„far enemy‟ as well,
manifested in its high profile attacks in Europe and other places beyond the Middle East. The authors recommendthat a comprehensive global strategy is required toeradicate this growing menace of organised terrorism.
Key words:
Al-Qaeda, The Islamic State, Global threat, Terrorism.
Introduction
he War on Terror (WoT) has fundamentally changed the securityenvironment having splintered alliances with the emergence of newterrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS).
1
Terrorist groupscan, in fact, be divided into three categories based on their capability andapproach: First-level terrorist organisations have restricted activitieswithin a state, however, their actions may have repercussions at theinternational level. These groups can enhance their activities in other parts of the world if allowed to grow unchecked. The Afghan Talibanmay be categorised under this since they do not have a global agenda andtheir focus has been on local and national political dynamics inAfghanistan. The second type of terrorist organisation is one which
*
The author is a Research Fellow at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) inIslamabad, Pakistan.
**
The author is Assistant Professor (Humanities), COMSATS Institute of InformationTechnology at the Vehari Campus, Pakistan.
1
Also referred to as Daesh or Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), alternativelytranslated as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham(ISIS).
T
IPRI Journal
XVI, No.2 (Summer 2016): 1-16
Muhammad Munir and Muhammad Shafiq
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operates at the regional level and its subversive actions cross at least oneinternational boundary, such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as itoperates in collaboration with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan(IMU) and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The AfghanTaliban is different from TTP in many ways. The TTP believe inworldwide
jihad
(holy war) and collaborate with transnational terroristgroups, whereas the Afghan Taliban work more independently and promote their character of nationality.
2
The terrorist organisations fallingin the third category are those which have the ability to operate at theinternational level and their aspirations can be transnational and evenglobal.
3
The IS and the Al-Qaeda fall into this category having a global
jihad
(holy war) agenda.The post-9/11 shifts in affiliations of various terrorists from onegroup to another; decentralisation of the command structure of Al-Qaedaunder Ayman al-Zawahiri; separation of ISIS from Al-Qaeda and itsemergence as the Islamic State; and
Pakistan‟s operation Zarb
-e-Azbagainst terrorists in North Waziristan, are some of the developments thatrequire analysis to understand the level of the threat Al-Qaeda and the IS pose.
Threat Assessment of the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda
Approximately 10,000 terrorist attacks were conducted in 2013 aroundthe globe by radical groups like the Al-Qaeda, the IS, Boko Haram
4
andthe Taliban which resulted in colossal economic and human loss.
5
According to the Global Terrorism Index 2015, the total number ofcasualties from terrorism was 3,329 in 2000; 18,111 in 2013; and 32,685in 2014 (nearly an 80 per cent increase).
6
Recently, the IS has been successful in expanding its globalinterests to re-establish the so-
called „
Caliphate
‟
and expand its influence
2
Khurram Iqbal, “Tehrik
-e-Taliban Pakistan:
A Global Threat,”
Conflict and PeaceStudies
3, no. 4 (2010): 125-138, http://www.san-pips.com/download.php?f=58.pdf.
3
White House,
National Strategy for Combating Terrorism
(U.S. Government, 2003), 1,cited in Jeffrey Record,
Bounding the Global War on Terrorism
(Carlisle: StrategicStudies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2003),https://fas.org/man/eprint/record.pdf.
4
Editor‟s Note:
Boko Haram began to emerge in 2003 in Nigeria and gained notorietyafter they kidnapped 276 girls from the town of Chibok in 2014.
5
“Global Terrorism Index: Terror Deaths Soar to All Time High,”
Express Tribune
, November 19, 2014, http://tribune.com.pk/story/793508/global-terrorism-index-terror-deaths-soar-to-all-time-high/.
6
IEP,
Global Terrorism Index 2015-Measuring and Understanding the Impact ofTerrorism
, report (Sydney: Institute for Economics and Peace, 2015),http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2015-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdf.
Global Threat: A Comparative Analysis of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS)
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globally. Fawaz A. Gerges explains the shift in the IS strategy from afocus on the
„
near enemy
‟
to
„
far enemy
‟:
In contrast to Al-Qaeda, the IS
initially focused on the „nearenemy‟—
Shia, the Iraqi and Syrian regimes, and secular, pro-Western states in the Middle East. But in a tactical shift ISIShas now taken responsibility for spectacular attacks in Europeand other places beyond the Middle East, making it clear thatthe group is increasingly interest
ed in targeting the „farenemy‟ as well.
7
Sayyid Qutb, an Egyptian scholar and the ideologue of the radicalfringes of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, turned
jihad
(holy war)into
fighting against the spread of materialist ways of life, be theycapitalist or communist, in a violent manner, rather than in a spiritualmanner as the greater
jihad
asks Muslims to do. Benoit Challand refersto Fawaz
A. Gerges‟s book „
The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global’
which discusses
„how Qutb‟s ideas were picked up
by a couple of radicalIslamist activists who went on to establish the Al-Qaeda
‟
:
The near enemy is the term used by radical Islamist groups tospeak of the government acting in Muslim-majority countriesand seen as illegitimate because it is hostile to the propagationof Islam within state structures. For decades, Islamists, theMuslim Brotherhood at the front of the line, have beentargeting their own national political leaders and tried, mostlyin vain, to take power on a national level.
8
In the first two years after the announcement of the so-called
„
Caliphate
‟ (June 29, 2014)
, the IS followed a policy of attacking the
„n
ear enemy
‟ and
saw a gradual rise. It occupied approximately one thirdterritory of Iraq and Syria by the end of 2014.
9
In order to stop itsexpansion, the U.S.-led alliance comprising of Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar,Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) started operation
„Inherent Resolve‟
in September 2014.
10
Subsequently, Russia also
7
Zia H. Shah, review of
ISIS: A History
, by Fawaz A. Gerges,
Muslim Times
, April 3,2016, https://themuslimtimes.info/2016/04/03/isis-a-history-by-fawaz-a-gerges/.
8
Benoit Challand, “When the Far Enemy becomes Near,”
PublicSeminar.org, January10, 2015, http://www.publicseminar.org/2015/01/when-the-far-enemy-becomes-near/#.V7wriFt97rc.
9
Fawaz A. Gerges,
ISIS: A History
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2016).
10
Radu Florescu, “The Benefits an
d Disadvantages of Air Strikes a
gainst ISIS,”
GlasgowGlobal Security Network
, February 3, 2016, http://www.gsn.gla.ac.uk/air-strikes-against-isis/.
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